Wall Street is still very much on board 94% of covering analysts rate Zynga as a buy-the highest of any videogame publisher, according to FactSet. It also said the weakness was still limited to newer players who didn’t have a strong history of spending in the company’s games.
Zynga also intentionally scaled back ad spending on iOS following the changes to make sure its user-acquisition costs were generating an appropriate return. The company’s recent acquisition of mobile-ad firm Chartboost should help it improve its ad targeting. Zynga’s relatively small cut to its full-year forecast suggests it is confident that it can remedy the problem soon. Global spending on games in iOS totaled $25.9 billion in the first half of this year compared with $18.7 billion on Android, according to data from Sensor Tower. And while Apple’s iOS powers only about 15% of smartphones sold globally each year, it is a far more lucrative platform than Google’s Android. Zynga’s subsequent reorganization around mobile games has sharply revived its fortunes, but it still leaves the company somewhat vulnerable to the whims of tech titans that run the world’s dominant mobile platforms. The situation now doesn’t come close to that sort of crisis-even Zynga’s reduced forecast calls for 23% bookings growth this year. Zynga lost more than one-third its market value that day alone and the business went into a tailspin, with net bookings sliding 37% the following year. Given that Facebook games accounted for nearly all of Zynga’s revenue at the time, that warning marked the beginning of a serious crisis for the company. That date is an ominous one, as it was when the company first warned investors that changes by Facebook were hurting engagement in its social games. Zynga’s share price slid 18% the following day-the stock’s worst single-day drop since its second quarter report in July of 2012. The company also trimmed its full-year bookings outlook by 3% to $2.8 billion.
And the pain isn’t over quite yet: Zynga’s forecast for the third quarter called for net bookings to grow by only 5% year over year-its worst pace in five years. Both were well-known risk factors before the report, but having them hit at the same time was painful. Zynga blamed the shortfall on a combination of reduced game-playing activity as more leisure options opened up and recent changes to Apple’s iOS platform that make it harder to track users for the purpose of selling targeted advertising. Zynga hasn’t missed Wall Street’s target for this key metric in at least five years, according to FactSet. Net bookings reflect the amount of in-game and advertising transactions executed during a given period.
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We also want to restate that, as we announced in July, we have no plans for any new model other than Nintendo Switch – OLED Model, which will launch on October 8, 2021.
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